My dad was a big fan of the singer/ songwriter Harry Chapin. Back in 1972, Harry wrote a song named “Circle”. It is a great song and some of the lyrics have always stuck with me. “All my life’s a circle; but I can’t tell you why; season’s spinning round again; the years keep rollin’ by.” These lyrics are certainly true, as I look out my window this morning and see the sun rising again on another hot summer day. In a few months, it will cool down and the leaves will change colors. Fall will come and go, then winter. Wash, rinse, repeat. The cycles of life will show up in everything we do. From the seasons to trading, “all my life’s a circle.” Last week, a nice lady called to discuss some of her investments. She is an older lady, so she remembered the 1980’s markets, including high inflation, Paul Volker, and the crash on Black Monday. My mind immediately went the some of the similarities between those times and today. Inflation is back on the rise. The current inflation rate is 8.6%, this number is up greatly from the sub-2% levels we saw from 2008 until last year. Paul Volker was the chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1975 to 1979. He is credited with raising interest rates to combat inflation successfully. While interest rates under Volker’s term rose to over 20%, which we hope does not happen this time around, Volker’s strategy is about the same as the current Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell. The stock market crash on October 19, 1987, is warmly referred to as “Black Monday”. In one day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 22.6%. If that same percentage dropped happened today, it would equate to a 7,205-point crash. Scary to think about, but the reality is that in a world of cycles, its bound to happen again, sooner, or later. I hope much later.